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基于附随扩散模型的实证研究结果表明，3G 定制手机业务的主要扩散动力是内部影响 因素，用户受口碑影响较大，新采纳者群体构成主要以模仿者为主。因此，3G 定制手机业 务扩散的主要动力来自已采用3G 定制手机的用户对潜在用户的口碑影响。 135 3.2 3G 定制手机业务发展趋势 通过3G 定制手机附随扩散模型，对3G 定制手机业务扩散趋势进行预测，本文预测了 四个数据额点，为运营商未来1-2 年定制手机数量提供的理论依据。 [参考文献] (References) [1] 洪后其、傅家骥 我国140 技术创新模式的选择 中国工业研究院， 1991 年4 月，34 期：23-25 [2] 武春友、王国红 技术创新是提高企业竞争力的有效途径 技术经济，1997 年，15 期：45-47 [3] Koski, H., Kretschmer, T., Entry, standards, and competition: firm strategies and the diffusion of mobile telephony. Review of Industrial Organization ,2005,26 ： 89-113. [4] Liikanen, J., Stoneman, P., Toivanen, O. Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case 145 of mobile phones.International Journal of Industrial Organization,2004, 22:1137-1154. [5] Valente, Thomas W.,"Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations," Social Networks 1996,18:69-89. [6] Kapur, Sandeep ,"Technological diffusion with social learning," Journal of Industrial Economics,1995,,43:173-195. 150 [7] Banerjee, Abhijit, and Drew Fudenberg,"Word-of-mouth learning,"Games and Economic Behavior 2004,46:1-22. [8] Chatterjee, Kalyan, and Susan Hu ."Technology diffusion by learning from neighbors," Advances in Applied Probability,2004,36:355-376. [9] Bottomley P，Fildes R，The role of Prices in models of innovation diffusion[J].Forecasting ,1998,17:P539-555. 155 [10] Jones, M. and C.J. Ritz. Incorporating Distribution into New Products Diffusion Models [J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1991, 8(6): 91-112 [11] Mahajan, V., E. Muller and F. M. Bass. New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research [J]. Journal of Marketing. 1990, 54:78-85 原创学术论文网Tag：代写毕业论文 代写论文 代写代发论文 代写经济论文 |
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